ABSTRACT
Fuzziness or uncertainties arise due to insufficient knowledge, experimental errors, operating conditions and parameters that provide inaccurate information. The concepts of susceptible, infectious and recovered are uncertain due to the different degrees in susceptibility, infectivity and recovery among the individuals of the population. The differences can arise, when the population groups under the consideration having distinct habits, customs and different age groups have different degrees of resistance, etc. More realistic models are needed which consider these different degrees of susceptibility infectivity and recovery of the individuals. In this paper, a Susceptible, Infected and Recovered (SIR) epidemic model with fuzzy parameters is discussed. The infection, recovery and death rates due to the disease are considered as fuzzy numbers. Fuzzy basic reproduction number and fuzzy equilibrium points have been derived for the studied model. The model is then solved numerically with three different techniques, forward Euler, Runge-Kutta fourth order method RK-4) and the nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) methods respectively. The NSFD technique becomes more efficient and reliable among the others and preserves all the essential features of a continuous dynamical system.
ABSTRACT
The worldwide association of health (WHO) has stated that COVID-19 (the novel coronavirus disease-2019) as a pandemic. Here, the common SEIR model is generalized in order to show the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission taking into account the ABO blood group of the infected people. Fractional order Caputo derivative are used in the proposed model. Our study is guided by the results that have been obtained by Chen J, Fan H, Zhang L, et al. from three unique medical clinics in Wuhan and Shenzhen, China. In this study, the feasibility region of the proposed model are calculated plus the points of equilibrium. Also, the equilibrium points stability is examined. A unique solution existence for the proposed paradigm is proved via utilizing the fixed point theory with regards to Caputo fractional derivative. Numerical experiments of the proposed paradigm is done and we show its sensitivity to the fractional order.
ABSTRACT
In the work, author's presents a very significant and important issues related to the health of mankind's. Which is extremely important to realize the complex dynamic of inflected disease. With the help of Caputo fractional derivative, We capture the epidemiological system for the transmission of Novel Coronavirus-19 Infectious Disease (nCOVID-19). We constructed the model in four compartments susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered. We obtained the conditions for existence and Ulam's type stability for proposed system by using the tools of non-linear analysis. The author's thoroughly discussed the local and global asymptotical stabilities of underling model upon the disease free, endemic equilibrium and reproductive number. We used the techniques of Laplace Adomian decomposition method for the approximate solution of consider system. Furthermore, author's interpret the dynamics of proposed system graphically via Mathematica, from which we observed that disease can be either controlled to a large extent or eliminate, if transmission rate is reduced and increase the rate of treatment.